Why India-US trade talks failed

Missed signals, lost deal:

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After five rounds of trade negotiations, Indian officials were so confident of securing a favorable deal with the United States that they even signalled to the media that tariffs could be capped at 15%.

Indian officials expected US President Donald Trump to announce the deal himself weeks before the August 1 deadline. The announcement never came.

New Delhi is now left with the surprise imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian goods from Friday, along with unspecified penalties over oil imports from Russia, while Trump has closed larger deals with Japan and the EU, and even offered better terms to arch-rival Pakistan.

Interviews with four Indian government officials and two US government officials revealed previously undisclosed details of the proposed deal and an exclusive account of how negotiations collapsed despite technical agreements on most issues.

The officials on both sides said a mix of political misjudgment, missed signals and bitterness broke down the deal between the world’s biggest and fifth-largest economies, whose bilateral trade is worth over $190 billion.

The White House, the US ‘Trade Representative office, and India’s Prime Minister’s Office, along with the External Affairs and Commerce ministries, did not respond to emailed requests for comment.

India believed that after visits by Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal to Washington and US Vice President J.D. Vance to Delhi, it had made a series of deal-clinching concessions.

New Delhi was offering zero tariffs on industrial goods that formed about 40% of US exports to India, two Indian government officials told Reuters.

Despite domestic pressure, India would also gradually lower tariffs on US cars and alcohol with quotas and accede to Washington’s main demand of higher energy and defense imports from the US, the officials said.