Poll: Inflation likely eased in Nov.

HEADLINE INFLATION likely eased in November as lower prices of food, particularly rice, may have tempered higher utility costs during the month, analysts said.

- Katherine K. Chan

A Business World poll of 15 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.6% for November inflation, within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) 1.1-1.9% month-ahead estimate.

If realized, last month's consumer price index (CPI) eased from the 1.7% clip in October and 2.5% logged a year ago.

It could also be the slowest clip in three months or since the 1.5% seen in August, and could mark the ninth straight month that inflation fell below the central bank's 2-4% target.

A1.6% November inflation print would bring the 11-month average inflation to 1.7%, matching the central bank’s forecast for the year.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release November inflation data on Dec. 5.

Maybank Investment Bank economist Azril Rosli said inflation likely slowed in November as food price pressures eased.

"Easing food price pressures, particularly in staple commodities such as rice and vegetables, were driven by improved supply conditions during the harvest season," Mr. Rosli said in an email.

Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the latest food price figures suggest food inflation likely continued to slow but not "below zero" as previously expected.

Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said disinflationary pressures remained dominant in November, particularly rice deflation.

"Continued price declines in rice — a high-weight item in the CPI basket — acted as a powerful dampener on overall inflation," he said in an email. "This trend has been well-documented and remains a key driver of the low headline reading."