The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on African agriculture

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, looks at how Russia’s conflict with Ukraine will affect the supply and prices of maize, wheat and oilseeds, particularly from an African perspective.

- Wandile Sihlobo

FAST FACTS

Russia and Ukraine are major players on the global agricultural market.

The conflict in the Black Sea region has seen commodity prices skyrocket over the past few weeks.

Disrupted trade from these two countries could lead to escalating food insecurity in Africa.

“No man qualifies as a statesman who is entirely ignorant of the problems of wheat” – the words of the ancient Greek philosopher, Socrates.

Wheat and other grains are back at the heart of geopolitics, following Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. Both countries play a major role in the global agricultural market, and African leaders must pay attention.

There is significant agricultural trade between countries on the continent and Russia and Ukraine. African countries imported agricultural products worth US$4 billion [about R61 billion] from Russia in 2020. Approximately 90% of this was wheat, and 6% was sunflower oil. Major importing countries were Egypt, which accounted for nearly half of the imports, followed by Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya and South Africa.

Similarly, Ukraine exported US$2,9 billion (R44 billion) worth of agricultural products to the African continent in 2020. About 48% of this was wheat, 31% maize, and the rest included sunflower oil, barley, and soya bean.

Russia and Ukraine are substantial players on the global commodities market. Russia produces about 10% of global wheat, while Ukraine accounts for 4%.