Manila in race against time to stop potential Chinese takeover of shoal

Philippines Correspondent or MANILA The pressure is on for the Philippines to replace a vessel it pulled out from a hotly contested shoal in the South China Sea risk losing a strategic area in its maritime dispute with Beijing.

- 

Geopolitical analysts warned that China could take control of Sabina Shoal, after the Philippines on Sept 15 was forced to withdraw its 97m-long coast guard ship BRP Teresa Magbanua from its waters after a five-month stand-off.

The Philippines has already said it is planning to send a replacement vessel, but did not provide details for now.

Political analyst Robin Garcia told The Straits Times that if Manila does not act fast, this could lead to a repeat of what happened to Scarborough Shoal in 2012.

A tense stand-off between the two nations then led to the Philippines withdrawing its vessels and China seizing control of that shoal, which was traditionally a fishing ground for many nationalities, including Filipinos and Chinese.

"It suspiciously feels as if it's like Scarborough Shoal all over again. I hope we have learnt our lesson already," said Mr Garcia, who heads the Manila-based public affairs firm WR Numero.

"I hope the Philippine government will be able to do something soon, because China has demonstrated that if there's an opportunity to control areas that are critical to them, they will do so."

Manila had anchored the Teresa Magbanua, one of its largest and most modern coast guard vessels, at Sabina Shoal in April in a bid to stop what it suspects are Beijing's efforts to build an artificial island there. China has denied this.

The submerged coral reef has become a new flashpoint in the South China Sea dispute, with Manila accusing Beijing in the past five months of ramming and firing water cannon at Philippine vessels near Sabina Shoal, as well as discharging flares at aircraft patrolling the area.

The Teresa Magbanua had to stay at the shoal with a gaping hole in its hull since colliding with a China Coast Guard vessel in late August.