It'd be pulled in kicking and screaming: Why the Philippines can't sit out a Taiwan conflict

Recent remarks by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr that the Philippines would inevitably be dragged "kicking and screaming" into a conflict over Taiwan may have unsettled Beijing, but they were also a rare moment of candour.

- Mara Cepeda

MANILA -

Analysts say geography, alliances and security interests mean neutrality over Taiwan is an illusion for Manila, which, as Mr Marcos said, would inevitably be drawn into a conflict involving Taiwan should one erupt.

Even as the Philippines insists on its "one China" policy, its quiet moves to engage Taiwan while also deepening defence ties with allies such as the US and Japan reflect a strategic reality: Whether it admits it or not, the Philippines is shaping up as a front-line player in any Taiwan contingency.

Geopolitical analyst Robin Garcia of Manila-based public affairs firm WR Numero told The Straits Times: "A potential armed invasion of Taiwan may also spill over to the Philippines, especially the northern part of the country. Whatever the case, whether we're allied with the US or China, the northern part of the Philippines may be part of the plan."

Responding to accusations of interference by Beijing over his earlier remarks on Taiwan, Mr Marcos told a news conference on Aug 11: "I don't know what they're talking about, playing with fire? I was just stating facts.

"We do not want to go to war, but I think if there is a war over Taiwan, we will be drawn (in); we will be pulled in whether we like it or not, kicking and screaming."

The Philippines has long framed any possible involvement in any Taiwan conflict mainly as a humanitarian concern, as there are 200,000 Filipino workers on the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as part of its territory.

But Dr Garcia warned that the stakes are far higher, as an invasion of Taiwan would put the Philippines in a far weaker position in the South China Sea.

"If China controls Taiwan, it can control Itu Aba, which (China) could then use to launch an attack against us. So we would be in a very, very weak position."