Will Starmer be defeated by his MPs over welfare cuts?

Some 108 Labour MPs - about a quarter of the parliamentary party – have signed up to an amendment to the government's welfare bill that could effectively stop planned cuts to personal independence payments (PIP).

- SEAN O'GRADY

A rebellion on that scale could be enough to eliminate the usual majority, defeat the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill, and humiliate the government. A vote on the crucial second reading of the bill is due next Tuesday, and time is running out for ministers to salvage their policy.

What's a 'reasoned amendment'?

One that rejects a proposed piece of legislation, listing reasons.

Despite the name, it wrecks the passage of a bill completely.

Are these rebels just the usual suspects?

No. There aren't enough of them on the left these days to cause serious damage to anything, and the fact that so many senior backbenchers, chairs of select committees and the like, plus new, usually loyal, members from the 2024 intake, are in open revolt indicates widespread disquiet.

How big?

The government might still win a vote on the bill, depending on how the opposition parties behave, and how many Labour rebels actually vote against it on the day (rather than abstain), but it would certainly slash the usual majority. However, any likely loss would be nowhere near the historic Commons defeats on Brexit that Theresa May suffered. Whatever the Commons voting, the resignation of senior ministers, maybe even in the cabinet, in protest, would be an even more significant moment.

Why rebel?