Why try to forecast growth if you always get it wrong?

We are determined to defy the forecasts on growth and create good jobs, so everyone is better off, while also helping us invest in better public services.

- JAMES MOORE

” So said the Treasury in response to the latest dismal economic release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It showed that UK GDP shrank by 0.1 per cent in October and also in the three months to October. Any more of this and the R word – recession - will surely loom large.

But wait: while my natural inclination, under this chancellor in particular, is to take the opposite view to anything coming out of the Treasury, perhaps Rachel Reeves has a point with that implied jab at forecasters who don't think her growth plans amount to a hill of beans.

The pointy-heads reckon that the UK will grow next year, if not by much. The Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) is arguably the most important forecaster on the block. It suggests a torpid 1.4 per cent expansion, downgraded from 1.5. The OECD's 2026 estimate, or should that be guess, is 1.2 per cent, the same as the Bank of England's. The CBI thinks 1.3.

The people making these forecasts have long lists of qualifications and enough letters after their names to fill a novella. They spend hours on end staring at screens, studying spreadsheets and interpreting data from so many sources it's a wonder they can keep track of it all.