One chance to sink Putin's economy – and we blew it

Despite pledges of support for Ukraine, many of its allies couldn't stomach the sacrifice it would take to cause him real harm: to give up his oil and gas

- By Owen Matthews

In the weeks following Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Europe's leaders followed the trail blazed by Boris Johnson to Kyiv to express their undying support for the war effort. Each, in different ways, echoed the Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau's mantra that they would give Ukraine "as much as it takes, for as long as it takes" to resist Putin.

Johnson himself assured Volodymyr Zelensky that “we are with you, and we are on your side” and vowed that Ukraine’s right to “choose its own destiny is a right that the United Kingdom and our allies will always defend”.

Three years later, the successors of those leaders crowded into the White House’s Oval Office to applaud Donald Trump’s opening of direct talks with Putin.

Despite the deaths of hundreds of thousands, and billions in military aid to Kyiv, Putin’s forces continue to advance beyond the 20 per cent of Ukraine he now controls. His missiles rain nightly death on Ukraine’s cities; Moscow’s army launched 270 drones and 10 missiles at central Ukraine just hours after President Zelensky concluded peace talks at the White House.

Though Putin’s economy is floundering, it is by no means crippled. And while Putin has failed to subjugate the whole of Ukraine to his will, he is on course to accomplish many of his war aims, including the “liberation” of the Russian-speaking region of the country and blocking Kyiv’s membership of Nato.

The West carries much of the blame for this failure. Oil and gas are the lifeblood of Russia's war machine - yet from the outset of the war, the US prioritised protecting steady world oil supplies over properly punishing Putin. Europe, too, has imposed 18 rounds of sanctions against Russia - yet itself has continued to find ways to import Russian oil, piped and liquefied gas (LNG), and refined oil products.