A peace deal without Belarus risks Russian annexation

On the eve of the invasion, Alexander Lukashenko - Belarus's first and only president since 1994 - assured Ukraine and the international community that no attack would come from Belarusian territory.

- VALERY TSEPKALO, DMITRY BOLKUNETS

Yet, just days later, Russian columns entered from Belarus in a direct betrayal of Ukraine and the Belarusian people, who oppose participation in this war. Missiles were launched, aircraft flew from Belarusian airfields, and Russian forces received logistical and rear support. Several countries have recognised Belarus as a co-aggressor in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Belarus stretches approximately 1,080km along Ukraine's northern border. It is the shortest route to Kyiv and a direct missile corridor toward Nato countries. As long as Belarus remains an unregulated military space, Europe's security architecture contains a fundamental breach.

Excluding Belarus from any future agreement would therefore leave a gaping hole in the peace of the continent. What was exploited once can be exploited again - not only against Ukraine, but Poland, Lithuania or Latvia. As long as Russian forces can freely use the territory, any "peace" is nothing more than a temporary ceasefire wrapped in diplomatic language.

If Belarus were to be fully or partially absorbed by Russia, the Kremlin would gain a direct corridor to exert pressure across central and northern Europe. The Russian army could deploy large forces along Nato borders and threaten Ukraine from the north, significantly complicating its security even after the current war ends. This would create a permanent source of tension and render any peace agreement incomplete and unstable.