Property market shifts to rebuilding in 2026

NAVIGATING A DOWNCYCLE

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The Philippine real estate sector is heading into a rebuilding phase, with industry leaders signaling that the next cycle will be defined less by rapid expansion and more by restoring confidence, correcting supply imbalances and recalibrating priorities after years of economic, political and climate shocks.

Anthony Leuterio, founder of Filipino Homes Group, said the market is navigating another downcycle—one he views as part of a recurring pattern rather than a structural rupture.

“Real estate moves in cycles,” Leuterio said. “Over the last two decades, we’ve probably gone through three or four. Each cycle is shaped by different disruptions—political issues, scandals, external shocks—but what matters is how the industry responds.”

In recent years, weaker tourism flows, governance concerns and a series of natural disasters have weighed on investor sentiment.

The cumulative impact has forced both local and foreign buyers to reassess long-term fundamentals, including the country’s ability to absorb new supply and remain competitive with regional peers.

“For investors, it becomes a trust question,” Leuterio said. “Can the market sustain returns? Can it support tourism-led demand? Are prices still aligned with other Asian markets?”

Cebu mirrors this broader national reset.

After years of aggressive development, the market is shifting toward a more demand-driven approach, with rebuilding—not expansion—emerging as the dominant theme for 2026.

“Next year is about rebuilding momentum,” Leuterio said. “Rebuilding the market, rebuilding products and rebuilding confidence.”

That reset is pushing developers to refocus on the mass and mid-income segments, where demand remains strongest and the country’s housing backlog continues to widen.

The national housing gap, estimated at six to seven million units, continues to grow as urban migration and population growth outpace new supply.