Bath and Saints to win - but only just

IT’S hard to see Northampton changing the way they’ve played all season when they face Saracens in the first Premiership play-off semi-final under the lights at Franklin’s Gardens on Friday night.

- JEREMY GUSCOTT

However, Northampton made a load of mistakes when they were pressured by a very good Leinster defence in the first-half of their recent European Cup semi-final – and Saints were pretty naive in the way they stuck to their guns by trying to attack off everything, with their errors exploited for James Lowe to score a hat-trick of tries.

This will probably change as Northampton play more of these big high-pressure games, because sometimes you have to find ways to win that are not about always running the ball. It’s also about mixing your kicking game, and keeping the opposition guessing. All-out attack might win you some big knock-out games, but to my reckoning it will not win you the majority of them.

Saracens are like Leinster in the sense that they have a solid defence and know how to counter-attack very effectively, as they proved recently by outplaying Bristol at Ashton Gate. They move as a 15 with everyone understanding their roles, and there is a snap in the way that they switch into the mode required, whether it’s in attack or defence.

When Saracens are at their best they have a collective attitude and determination, and a synchronisation which has made them very difficult to beat. But, don’t get me wrong, because I’ve loved watching a Northampton attack which has combined flair and precision this season to such an extent that, with some of the tries they’ve scored, you just stand up and applaud.

Northampton have also got over a psychological barrier by beating Saracens both away and home in the Premiership this season. Those two wins could be significant, but Saracens have the advantage of being more familiar with the atmosphere surrounding semi-finals and finals than Northampton.

"Emotions will run high as Saracens will not want it to end without Farrell lifting the trophy"