A Harsh Harvest

Farmers, dairyists and small businesses in India are grappling with tariff threats from the United States

- By Pragya Singh

In Bastali, a lush rice-growing village in Haryana's Karnal district, Tejvir Singh's days still begin like they always have—with a walk through his rice fields, feeding his buffaloes and watching the sky for signs of rain. But lately, Singh finds himself listening to global news more than weather forecasts. That's what everyone around him also wants to discuss these days.

It is not that the farmers of Bastali are especially keen on international affairs, but they believe their livelihood might soon depend on what US President Donald Trump tweets, what Russian President Vladimir Putin concedes, what Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, promises in a press conference—and what India does about them all.

“It’s like being dragged into someone else’s war,” says Tejvir Singh. “Only now, it’s being fought over our rice, oilseeds, soyabean and milk.”

Farmers, dairyists and small businesses in India are caught up in a web of tariff threats from the world’s biggest economy—the United States. Dragged into this, farmers are suddenly forced to ponder over defence deals, nuclear tech swaps and unstable global diplomacy. They are now acutely aware that their fate depends on more than just the monsoon, or mandi prices. It is tied to secondary sanctions, strategic posturing and the whims of political strongmen. That uncertainty has everyone on edge, for jobs are at stake—46 per cent of India still directly depends on agriculture for its livelihood—and consumers may soon be pitted against growers. Whenever there’s talk about imports of edible items, especially farm-based goods, it is a chilling prospect in a country where workers, farmers and consumers often belong to the same family.

Most Indian farms barely break even after each season.

Hence, the prospect of heavily subsidised imports from the US, where only one per cent of the population depends on agriculture, has sparked sleepless nights for many.