Tariffs, tensions, trade-offs New world order for Indian exports

With global trade at an inflection point, Indian exporters are balancing cost pressures and geopolitical uncertainty with cautious optimism and strategic opportunity.

- Libin Chacko Kurian

As protectionist trade policies reshape global supply chains, Indian exporters—especially in the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors—are navigating a fragile yet potentially transformative moment. With US tariff hikes looming and the China-US trade standoff deepening, India is both exposed to new risks and primed for unique opportunities. Industry leaders are weighing the costs of rising duties, the prospects of market diversification, and India's ability to compete not just on price but on value and scale. From generic drugs to engine components, the story of India's exports in 2025 is one of recalibration, resilience, and readiness in the face of a shifting global order.

According to GEP's Outlook Report 2025 Procurement & Supply Chain, the global trade landscape is undergoing a fundamental shift.

“For years, globalisation and free trade dominated strategic thinking, allowing companies to maximise efficiency by leveraging low-cost production hubs around the world. However, emerging trade barriers threaten to disrupt this established approach,” the report states.

For supply chain and procurement leaders, this changing environment means they must rethink traditional models. “A future shaped by protectionist trade policies, tariffs and increased regulatory scrutiny will demand a more agile, resilient and forward-thinking approach to supply chain management.”

Monique Giese, Global Head of Shipping at KPMG in Germany, highlights the shifting dynamics in global trade as outlined in the 2025 edition of The Great Reset: Emerging trends in infrastructure and transport by KPMG.

“Tariffs and trade barriers tend to reduce global demand for shipping. At the very least, they add to the complexity and friction of global trade. Volume growth may no longer be a given for shipping lines,” she notes.