Macadamia nuts: has the bubble burst?

Driven by high prices and attractive profit margins, macadamia plantings have exploded over the past seven years. Unfortunately, these large volumes have now combined with a downturn in the market to force farm-gate prices down, and many macadamia farmers are concerned about their future. Charles Cormack, CEO of Marquis Marketing, spoke to Lindi Botha about the road ahead for the industry.

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We've seen a big price reduction in macadamias as a result of high volumes and slow market uptake. Has the global market for this crop simply become saturated?

We're facing economic headwinds in all of our major markets, with supply outstripping demand and low farm-gate prices. Macadamia products are usually a premium and discretionary purchase, which puts pressure on consumer demand in most markets. Anecdotally, macadamia retail sales are down between 6% and 10% in the US and Europe, while sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival in China were reportedly down between 40% and 50%. With high in-market inventory and prices falling, buyer sentiment is very low.

The global outlook for macadamia demand and sales has therefore become increasingly challenging. We need to work harder to find and activate new sales and marketing opportunities and maintain existing contracts, even with loyal long-term customers.

In September, Macadamias South Africa increased the country's crop estimate for 2022 from 57 723t to 68 522t dry nut-in-shell. This updated forecast is 28,5% higher than the final 2021 crop of 53 320t dry nut-in-shell. In addition, anecdotal reports of a larger than forecast Australian crop are spreading through the markets.

The entire industry is sitting on high levels of unsold stock, and cash flow is becoming the name of the game for many players. Competition for new sales opportunities is fierce and, in some cases, buyers are playing suppliers off against each other, driving prices down to levels we haven't seen in more than 10 years.

What marketing strategy would be required to increase uptake?