Turnaround Or Propaganda?

Haters will hate. But the truth is, the Indian economy under Modi’s regime isn’t flagging. In fact, numbers suggest the opposite, putting the era of economic paralysis and stagnation behind us.

- Sutanu Guru

ECONOMISTS CAN BE more argumentative than lawyers. Often, they have the penchant to bend facts and data to suit their ideology in a manner that would be the envy of activists and politicians. No wonder, there seems to be no consensus on the turnaround story of the Indian economy. Those who vowed to pack their bags and leave India if Narendra Modi was elected as the Prime Minister in 2014, insist that the Indian economy is in a mess and that the Modi regime is simply fudging figures and grandstanding to present a rosy picture. Those who think a 21st century version of “Ram Rajya” was ushered in by voters in 2014 insist that the more than 7 per cent GDP growth rate of is nothing short of a miracle in a gloomy global scenario.

What’s the real picture? As usual, reality lies uncomfortably ensconced between the two ideological extremes. When they are not fighting, economists do agree that four factors could be safely used to conclude if an economy is growing or if growth is flagging. The first is sales in the automobile industry. The second is construction activity which includes infrastructure as well as real estate. The third is growth in both public and private investment and capital formation. The first three can actually be measured statistically as they are driven by real numbers. The fourth is a subjective criteria: consumer and investor sentiments.