The Mess Iowa Made

A muddled outcome and low voter turnout made the country’s first presidential primary contest an unmitigated disaster for Democrats.

- Weston Kosova

The Iowa caucuses usually play a critical role in the presidential primary process by testing the candidates, winnowing the field, and slingshotting the top two or three finishers to national prominence. The results coming out of Iowa often shape the national narrative for the rest of the race. But this year’s app-induced fiasco, which produced a low-confidence split decision between Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders, won’t even fulfill that basic function. The only certainty coming out of Iowa was that all of the candidates are now going on to New Hampshire.

Instead of clarifying questions of viability and moving the party forward in settling on a nominee, it did the opposite.

Absent a clean result, candidates like Joe Biden and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar who placed well below the first tier escaped the reckoning that ordinarily accompanies disappointing finishes. A decisive Buttigieg or Sanders victory typically would have produced a fundraising windfall, glowing media coverage, and a strong bounce in the polls—since 1976, the Iowa winner has gained an average of more than 12 points in national polls in the month following the caucuses. With no one getting that boost, no one will be forced from the race.