Warming limit of 1.5°C 'no longer plausible' as emissions hit new high

NEW analysis finds that while many countries are shifting to clean energy, it will not be enough to offset the growth in global energy demand, which will lead to an increase in oil, coal and gas burning and the climate-warming emission it generates.

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The latest annual analysis from the global carbon budget project does find that projected emissions from changes to how land is used, such as deforestation, are down from 2024 levels to 4.1 billion tonnes in 2025.

That means that overall carbon dioxide emissions for this year are projected to be slightly lower than last year.

But the remaining global carbon budget - the amount of emissions that can be put into the atmosphere over time without pushing up temperatures beyond a certain amount ~ for the agreed global warming limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is “nearly exhausted” the study warns.

It will be used up in four years at current levels of pollution.

The report estimates the world is putting out 38.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, including cement production, in 2025, up 1.1% on 2024’s levels, and a new record high.

“With carbon dioxide emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible,’ said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, of the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study.

‘The report finds that the end of the 2023/2024 El Nino weather pattern - a phenomenon in the tropical Pacific that causes extra heat and drought in many regions - this year means that the ability of “sinks” such as forests to absorb carbon have returned to pre-El Nino levels.