The 'quiet' crisis brewing between the US and South Korea

Trade tensions are building, the military alliance is under pressure and South Korean domestic politics are fraught. Can Seoul negotiate a way out?

- Christian Davies

SEOUL — This month, South Korea and the US staged their latest joint naval drills. Destroyers and patrol aircraft rehearsed responses to potential incursions by North Korean drones and special forces across the maritime border.

"With the overwhelming power of the South Korea-US combined fleet, we will strongly retaliate against any enemy provocation," South Korean navy commander Ryu Yoon-sang declared.

But behind the boilerplate expressions of common resolve, experts describe a series of possible crises brewing in US-South Korea relations.

Despite an alliance that goes back decades, the two countries are threatening to diverge on sensitive questions of trade, regional security and the growing North Korean nuclear threat.

When US President Donald Trump announced a 25 per cent "reciprocal" tariff on Korean imports, South Korean officials were shocked. They had believed a longstanding, comprehensive free trade agreement, under which South Korea in effect does not levy tariffs on American goods, would set them apart.

Policymakers in Seoul also worry that America's fixation on the rise of China will lead it to neglect deterrence efforts against Pyongyang, while also pressuring South Korea into a more confrontational stance towards Beijing.

While many of these fears reflect longstanding tensions, they have been exacerbated by the return to power of Mr Trump, whose repeated declarations of admiration for North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un stand in contrast with his often contemptuous attitude towards the South.

During his first term, Mr Trump threatened to pull out of the Korea-US (Korus) free trade agreement that came into force in 2012, and to withdraw US troops from the Korean peninsula in a dispute over cost-sharing. The fact that South Korea has a record trade surplus with the US has only added fuel to the fire.