Economists Raise Singapore Growth Forecast for 2025 to 2.4%

Private sector economists raised their forecast for Singapore's economic growth in 2025, citing milder-than-expected trade tensions, but they also see the possible levying of semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs by the US as the biggest threat to the outlook.

- Angela Tan

Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to expand 2.4 per cent in 2025, according to the latest quarterly survey of professional forecasters by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released on Sept 3. This is higher than the previous survey estimate of 1.7 per cent made in June.

The latest growth forecast is underpinned by the improved outlook for manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and key exports. In contrast, the growth forecast for accommodation and food services fell to 0.5 per cent from an already weak 1.5 per cent in the June survey.

The upgrade comes after the economy's surprisingly strong performance in the first half of the year, leading the Government to raise its growth forecast for 2025.

The economists, however, see Singapore's growth slowing to 1.9 per cent in 2026, according to the MAS survey.

Their latest growth projection for 2025 is still slower than the 4.4 per cent expansion seen in 2024. But it is at the higher end of the 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent range projected by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) in August, after it raised its forecast from an earlier range of 0 per cent to 2 per cent growth.

Geopolitical tensions, including the introduction of semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs, have emerged as the foremost downside risk to Singapore's economic outlook.

US President Donald Trump said in August that the US could initially place a "small tariff" on pharmaceutical imports, before hiking tariffs to 150 per cent within 18 months and eventually to 250 per cent in an effort to boost domestic production. He did not specify the initial tariff rate.