Moscow likely to break any ceasefire deal, warn experts

Vladimir Putin will exploit a truce, senior European officials say, as the Kremlin awaits details of the US-backed proposal

- TOM WATLING SAM KILEY

The chances of Vladimir Putin upholding a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine are “close to nil” European officials fear, with one warning that it could last just 30 minutes.

Ukraine agreed to a 30-day truce after talks with the US in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. But while the world waits for the response from the Kremlin, current and former officials across Europe have told The Independent Moscow would try and extract as much as possible from the US for any agreement – and then violate it anyway.

One senior official from Lithuania – one of the Baltic nations which fears Mr Putin’s invasion could be extended to their border – said: “What for us, Ukraine or the US, is 30 days could be just 30 minutes for Russia.”

“There are a lot of examples of this,” said the official, who was speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the situation openly. Russia has repeatedly ignored previous agreements to end fighting between Kyiv’s forces and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, which has been underway since 2014, all before Mr Putin’s full-scale invasion three years ago.

Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6 from 2014 to 2020, said Mr Putin would probably agree to the 30-day ceasefire, but then try to “push his luck” with unworkable demands that would put a truce under extreme pressure and make progress difficult.

“[Putin’s] demands will be maximal and I don’t see how Ukraine can meet them,” he said, suggesting they will be based on ensuring that Ukraine is essentially a “non-country”, one that is neutral and disarmed.

Sir Laurie Bristow, the British former ambassador to Moscow from 2016 to 2020, said the “chances of Russia respecting [a ceasefire] are as close to nil as makes no difference”.