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Weighing the odds How likely is it that latest plan for peace will work?

The Guardian

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October 06, 2025

Hamas's partial acceptance of Donald Trump's Gaza deal on Friday has been welcomed internationally and is the closest Israel and Hamas have got in two years to ending the war in Gaza.

- William Christou

Negotiators from Israel, the US and Hamas and Palestinian parties will meet in Cairo, where they will begin negotiations today to iron out differences remaining over the US president's plan. They have a groundswell of optimism and political momentum behind them as Israeli, Palestinian, US and Arab leaders alike urge the warring parties to reach a deal.

The world is watching closely to see whether this could finally mark the end of the brutal war, which has had a series of collapsed peace talks and has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians. The death toll is widely considered to be an underestimate, as Gaza's health ministry only lists bodies that have been recovered, not the thousands buried under the rubble.

How close is a deal?

Hamas's partial acceptance of the Trump plan is the closest negotiators have got in recent months to a comprehensive end to the war in Gaza. However, a deal is still far off.

Trump's 20-point proposal to end the war stipulates that Hamas release all hostages within 72 hours, surrender ruling power to a transnational authority headed by the US president, and disarm.

In return, Israel would gradually withdraw its troops from the Gaza Strip and return more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.

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