'Labour's tree has died' Is byelection beginning of end for party in Wales?

When he steps out of the byelection campaign office opposite Caerphilly Castle, the Plaid Cymru candidate, Lindsay Whittle, tends to hear a couple of different cries from passing motorists.

- Steven Morris

“Some of them shout: ‘Good luck Linds!’ I love that,” Whittle said. “It implies we're old friends even though I may not know them personally.” Others are rather less positive. “They yell: ‘Stop the boats!’ You hear that all the time.

“But the boats are not an issue here. There are no boats with immigrants coming up the River Taff. Ninety-seven per cent of people in this constituency were born in Britain.”

The people of Caerphilly go to the polls today to elect a new Senedd member after the sudden death of Labour’s Hefin David.

Labour has long held the Caerphilly Senedd and Westminster constituencies but, unless the polls are wide of the mark, the party is likely to be beaten into third place this week with either Plaid or Reform UK seizing the Welsh parliament seat.

Plaid appears to be picking up Labour voters disenchanted with the party’s performance both in Cardiff and Westminster while Reform hoovers up traditional Conservative voters and those impressed by its promises to end what it calls the other two parties’ “mass immigration agenda”.

Whittle, who has been a local councillor for half a century, wants to win for two reasons - to further the cause of his beloved Plaid and to keep out Reform.

“Labour is facing annihilation,” he said. “The Labour tree has finally died. The roots have gone and it’s dead.” He got on well with David. “He was a nice guy. I don’t want Hefin’s legacy to be Reform, to be hate.”

All this is not just a local issue. If Labour loses here it will be a huge blow for the party that has dominated politics in Wales for a century. It faces an even bigger challenge next year when full Senedd elections take place.

If it loses control of the Welsh government - and Reform does well - it will be seen as a signal of political transformation in the UK.