Kremlin Salvo fired as warning to the west before Trump 2.0

Like Chekhov's gun coming off the wall in Act IV, it was probably only a matter of time before Vladimir Putin launched an experimental, nuclear-capable ballistic missile into Ukraine.

- Andrew Roth

It is hardly a coincidence that his decision comes as the war approaches a likely endgame, with both sides jockeying for position ahead of negotiations in the shadow of Donald Trump.

Neither Ukraine nor Russia quite knows what Trump will do when he takes office in January. But the escalations taking place now will set a new status quo for the day he becomes president, at which point Trump's options range from hard-nosed horse-trading to simply throwing Ukraine under the bus.

Ukrainian officials said this week that they simply do not know what the president-elect has planned for them. And with little idea of Trump's intentions, they are focused on optimising their battlefield position, seeking to hold a beachhead in Russia's Kursk region and shore up the frontlines elsewhere across the battlefield to be in as strong a position as possible before the new US administration.

US officials, similarly unsure of what their new president will do, are keen to make Ukraine as self-sufficient as possible and to prepare their European partners to increase support to Ukraine after Joe Biden's departure. One way some officials have described the goal is to avoid handing Trump another Afghanistan, where the country's military collapses as soon as US support ends. Most are pessimistic that Ukraine can continue the fight indefinitely, however.