Unless Biden steps aside, we must prepare for the return of Trump

During the two months I spent in the US earlier this year, I kept asking every journalist, academic and analyst I met one simple question: "Who will be the next president of the United States?"

- Timothy Garton Ash

The response was usually the same. First there was a distinct hesitation, then they said: "Well, probably Joe Biden, but ..." What followed the "but" was a long list of concerns, partly about deeper trends but mainly about how old and frail the 80-year-old president looks. Often, the conversation ended with my interlocutor saying it would be better if Biden stood aside, to let a younger candidate turn the age card against the 77-year-old Donald Trump.

Biden has been a good president. Although the retreat from Afghanistan was chaotic, he dealt with the Covid pandemic well and is handling the war in Ukraine fairly well. He is presiding over a remarkably vibrant economy, with New Deal-style public spending accelerating a green transition and creating jobs. But if he stumbles physically, mentally or politically during the marathon that is a US presidential campaign, and lets Trump back in, that's the only thing Biden will be remembered for.

In a recent NBC poll, Trump and Biden were neck and neck, scoring 46% each. Any one of a number of factors unrelated to the characters and performances of the two candidates might swing such a close election. In the country's hyperpolarised media environment, many Republican voters simply don't see that the economy is doing well. AI will add to the already high possibility of misinformation, with Vladimir Putin eager to tip the scales in favour of Trump.