VIETNAM LEADS EMs, INDIA AT RANK FIVE

India's standing among traditional emerging market (EM) peers has been strong due to its robust GDP growth. The country now faces challenges from Vietnam's rapidly rising status and its own external weaknesses.

- BY PAYAL BHATTACHARYA

If gross domestic product (GDP) growth, manufacturing activity, contained inflation and a comfortable import cover are India’s strengths, the rupee and stock markets are proving to be its Achilles’ heel.

These external vulnerabilities have repeatedly prevented India from topping Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker more consistently. As the country grapples with these weaknesses, Vietnam—newly-added to the tracker—has emerged as a strong challenger.

Vietnam has topped the tracker in three of the past four months, making a strong debut. Over a longer 12-month horizon, however, India retains a narrow lead: it ranked first six times compared with Vietnam's five.

The contest between India—an established EM giant—and Vietnam—an increasingly prominent emerging economy—has, therefore, become one of the most closely-watched dynamics in the tracker.

Launched in September 2019, Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker compares major emerging economies using seven high-frequency indicators: real GDP growth, manufacturing PMI, export growth, retail inflation, import cover, exchange rate movements and stock market performance.

Originally tracking 10 EM economies, the index now includes Vietnam and South Africa, taking the total to 12, and broadening the framework to better capture shifts in the emerging market landscape.

The rankings in this analysis map the performance of these economies based on the updated tracker over the past 12 months.

JANUARY GAUGE