Tight liquidity sets stage for RBI action

Liquidity in India's banking system has turned negative for the first time in a month, as the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) dollar sales to defend the rupee and higher cash withdrawals during the festive season drained funds from the market.

- Subhana Shaikh

The central bank could step in soon to ease the crunch, likely through open market operation (OMO) bond purchases or forex buy/sell swaps, market participants told Mint.

As of 23 October, liquidity was in a deficit of ₹2,645 crore. Market participants warn that if the outflows persist, core liquidity-system liquidity after accounting for government cash balances-could slip below 1% of the net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) by the March quarter. This will tighten funding conditions, push up short-term rates and strain banks' ability to lend during the busy season.

Under its liquidity management framework, the RBI aims to maintain system liquidity, which includes government cash balances, at around 1% of NDTL.

The need for RBI action is heightened by the fact that benefits from the cut in cash reserve ratio (CRR)-the percentage of a bank's total deposits that must be kept with the RBI in cash-earlier this year, with two tranches of $62,500 crore each released already, have largely been offset by heavy outflows of rupee liquidity.