A puzzling gap

There is a large and growing gulf between cereal production and known uses of it

- JEAN DREZE & CHRISTIAN OLDIGES

India produces about 300 million tonnes of cereals every year, but household consumption is barely 150 million tonnes. What is going on?

Before addressing this question, we should substantiate the figures. According to the official Foodgrains Bulletin of February 2024 published by the Department of Food and Public Distribution of the Government of India, cereal production (mainly rice and wheat) crossed 300 million tonnes for the first time in 2022-23 and reached 308 million tonnes in 2023-24. The latest three-year average of annual production (for 2021-22 to 2023-24) is 300 million tonnes.

What about household consumption? According to the latest consumption survey conducted by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), average per-capita cereal consumption was 9 kg per person per month in 2022-23: 9.61 kg and 8.05 kg per person in rural and urban areas, respectively. Assuming that India's population was around 1.38 billion at that time, as projected by the National Commission on Population, total household consumption of cereals would have been around 150 million tonnes in 2022-23.

The Government of India's annual Economic Survey traditionally deducts 12.5 per cent for seed, feed and wastage (SFW) to infer "net production" from gross production. Then it calculates "net availability" by adding net imports and deducting changes in public stocks. Until recently, net availability per capita more or less matched the NSSO consumption estimates. In recent years, however, a large gap - hereafter "the cereal gap" - has emerged between net availability and household consumption.