Will lightning strike twice?

Thailand is heading towards a general election on Feb 8, and the stakes for the main opposition People's Party (PP) could hardly be higher.

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After winning the popular vote in the 2023 election but failing to form a government due to Senate intervention and shifting political alliances, the party now faces a familiar and troubling prospect: even if it wins again, it could once more be confined to the opposition benches.

This paradox where electoral victory does not translate into governing power highlights the peculiarities of Thailand's hybrid political system and the entrenched interests that shape coalition politics. For the PP, the coming poll may determine whether it becomes a permanent opposition force or finally breaks through to government for the first time.

Led by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the PP is widely expected to perform strongly again. Opinion surveys show it maintaining dominant support among younger voters, urban constituencies and reform-minded citizens frustrated by sluggish economic recovery, mounting household debt and persistent institutional inequality. Its platform -centred on political reform, reduced military influence and expanded social welfare continues to resonate with these groups.

Yet the lesson of 2023 remains stark: in Thailand's parliamentary system, a plurality of seats does not guarantee control of government. Unless the PP secures an outright majority, it will again need coalition partners parties that may be reluctant to align with a movement widely viewed as disruptive to the existing power structure.