In Our Time

The modern world is moving away from an era of relative stability toward one characterised by rising conflict

- Ali Mammadov

IN recent decades, full-scale wars and cold wars were often regarded as remnants of history, valuable primarily as lessons on the dangers of unchecked rivalry and ideological confrontation. Many believed that the modern world, shaped by institutions and economic interdependence, had moved beyond such conflicts. Yet, these assumptions now appear increasingly tenuous. Today, the dynamics of great-power competition and regional instability suggest that the world has not left these patterns behind but is instead witnessing their resurgence in new forms. The growing rivalry between the United States and China has been described as a ‘Cold War II’, evoking comparisons to the ideological and strategic tensions of the mid-20th century. At the same time, discussions of a potential ‘World War III’, once confined to speculative fiction, have entered the realm of serious analysis among policymakers and academics. These concerns are not abstract. The ongoing war in Ukraine and escalating violence in the Middle East highlight the volatility of the current international system, while rising tensions in Asia, particularly around Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea, suggest that great-power competition is far from dormant. Meanwhile, internal conflicts such as the civil war in Sudan, highlight the enduring capacity of localised crises to generate widespread instability. Taken together, these developments point to an unsettling conclusion: the world appears to be moving away from an era of relative stability toward one characterised by rising conflict and strategic uncertainty.

Rather than being confined to the history books, the forces that shaped the conflicts of the 20th century are once again shaping the global order.

History Repeats Itself