Mamdani’s Miracle

If all goes well, and your columnist is really hoping that it does go well, the world’s most famous city will soon be won and run by a man with a Gujarati father and a Punjabi mother. Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic Party’s nomination in June and on 4 November will likely win the general election to become New York’s mayor.

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What I wanted to focus on was his campaign and how he came out on top. In January this year, he was polling at 1% but by June had won 43% of the primary (the election that decides who will represent the Democratic Party in the general) and now polls show him at 50% in an expanded electorate of the entire city. How did this happen?

Americans refer to such analysis as punditry and let us indulge in it.

First, take a look at the city’s demographics. New York has 350,000 millionaires and 123 billionaires, as might be expected in the place that is host to Wall Street. But one fourth of its population lives in poverty as defined in that city. That definition is that a family of four surviving on $47,000 or less a year. That is a total of more than 20 lakh New Yorkers.

Mamdani’s starting point in his campaign was to focus on this problem of affordability. This went against conventional wisdom and polling, which showed that crime and safety were top priorities for voters. Mamdani’s rivals focussed on those, but he took up affordability and made it his plank. He then offered three primary solutions: a four-year rent freeze on rent-stabilized apartments (in which 20 lakh tenants live); free childcare for children up to the age of five (something which costs a family around $22,000 per year if both parents are working); and free buses.