Rishi needs to take a swing at knocking down Labour's lead

“Voters make clear they want real action on immigration’

- Stephen Pollard Political commentator

IT'S that time of the year when pundits make their predictions for the next 12 months. Well, not this one! As the ancient Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu put it: "Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." We can't even say for certain that there will be an election this year. Technically, Rishi Sunak could hang on until next January although that's extremely unlikely.

So let's cast predictions aside and instead look at what Donald Rumsfeld, the former US defence secretary famously described "known as unknowns" - things we know will happen, but which we don't know how they will happen.

The polls make a Labour win look certain. Polls, however, aren't a prediction: they are a snapshot of public opinion at the time they are taken.

That said, public opinion rarely shifts overnight. But even to manage a majority of just one in the Commons, Labour needs a swing of 12 per cent from the last election result. No party has managed this since 1945 - even Tony Blair's 1997 landslide was only achieved with a 10 per cent swing.

So for Sunak, the issue is stark but clear: what can he do to maximise the Conservative Party's chances and make that swing to Labour fall short?