Living on the brink of a disastrous future

Floods, extreme temperatures and other natural disasters are reducing global agricultural production, threatening the most vulnerable, according a recent study.

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Agriculture around the world is increasingly at risk of being disrupted by multiple hazards and threats, such as flooding, water scarcity, drought, declining agricultural yields and fisheries resources, loss of biological diversities and environmental degradation. Geophysical hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mass movements damage infrastructure and cause widespread disruption to the services and networks (such as transport and market access) on which agriculture is reliant.

Variations in water supply and extreme temperatures are two of the biggest factors affecting agricultural production. Floods and heavy precipitation can have both positive and negative impacts on agricultural systems and productivity; rainfall variability is one of the leading causes of most crop losses. In Pakistan, exceptional monsoon rainfalls and subsequent flooding in 2022 caused nearly US$4 billion (about R73 billion) in damages to the agriculture sector.

In Honduras, the combined effects of drought and the 2020 storms halved agricultural production and heightened food insecurity, forcing many to flee internally and across borders. Agricultural drought emerges from a combination of rainfall deficits (meteorological drought), soil water deficits and reduced groundwater or waterstorage levels needed for irrigation (hydrological drought). During the growing season especially, drought can result in a lack of precipitation that affects crop production or ecosystem function. Soil moisture deficits and soil degradation affect other productive systems in addition to agriculture, particularly other natural or managed ecosystems, including forests and rangelands.