Could coffee price spike be a taste of the future?

Scientists have long warned climate change is coming for our morning coffee, and a recent spike in global bean prices could be the first sign it’s actually happening.

- Royce Kurmelovs

Global coffee prices are forecast to jump to $ 3.32 per kg this year – an increase of 21.6% from 2020 – according to market research firm IBISWorld, after a July cold snap in a major arabica coffee-producing region of Brazil wiped out a third of the crop.

Suzy Oo, a senior industry analyst with IBISWorld, said the cost of freight had contributed to making the recent coffee bean price spike the largest since 2014. She predicts prices will fall over the coming months and doesn’t expect a rise in the cost of a flat white, owing to competition between cafe owners. But the other factor to consider is climate change, Oo said. “There’s also the extreme weather conditions in Brazil, which is the world’s biggest supplier of coffee beans.”

Farmers in coffee-producing regions of Brazil have been grappling with droughts in recent years and while frosts are common in July and August, the severity of the most recent event caught producers by surprise.