An overview of South Africa's barley industry

Unfavourable weather conditions, improved canola cultivars and alcohol bans have all added to the woes of South Africa’s barley producers. Absa AgriBusiness looks at the industry’s future prospects.

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Market predictions of strong growth for barley led to a sharp increase in barley plantings in 2018 and increases in procurement mandates from large malting barley buyers. In the years that followed, however, the industry had to face unforeseen and unprecedented challenges.

The tide began to turn in 2019. Quality problems led to a high level of unutilised stock. This was aggravated in 2020 by the restriction on beer sales during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The situation was made even worse by a limited opportunity for barley exports, with South Africa ranking 46th in the world for its annual barley harvest in tons and 11th for total national beer consumption.

Plantings for the current season drew to a close in May, and it is worthwhile considering what the current season could hold. The graph below shows the area planted, the tonnage harvested and the closing stock (end-December annually) from 2015 to 2020, with the mandate for the current season determined at 388 000t.

It has been estimated that 90 000ha would have be planted.

Based on average yield over the past five years, this hectarage should produce about 344 777t, which is 11% lower than the mandated tonnage.

SOUTHERN CAPE

The Southern Cape’s production volume is set at 269 000t, but extremely wet weather during May could negatively affect production in this region.