March data offers hope that carbon emissions in China may be peaking

A 3% fall in emissions ends l4-month surge following the end of Covid-zero controls

- David Fogarty

If there is one question energy analysts and climate scientists want answered, it is this: Have carbon emissions in China finally peaked? China is the world's top carbon polluter, emitting nearly a third of all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions linked to human activity, and those emissions are a major driver of climate change.

It is also by far the largest investor in and producer of wind and solar energy. How the country manages the transition to a clean energy economy has lessons for all other nations and the pace of global -climate change.

While it is too early to say for sure if emissions have peaked, China's carbon emissions fell 3 per cent year on year in March 2024, ending a 14-month surge following the lifting of Covid-zero controls, an analysis published on May 28 showed.

The main causes for the drop are expanding solar and wind generation, as well as declining construction activity caused by the ailing property sector.

Electricity demand has continued to increase rapidly in China, growing 7.4 per cent year on year in March, but record additions of wind and solar in 2023 helped meet 90 per cent of this additional demand.

The pace of growth of new green energy capacity has continued into 2024, noted the analysis published by Carbon Brief, a British climate news site. The analysis is based on official figures and commercial data.