'Glocalisation': Globalisation is not dead, but in Davos they were thinking closer to home

Not bad. But not great, either. That summed up the mood as the World Economic Forum (WEF) ended in Davos on Friday with a panel on the state of the global economy. Not bad because most countries outperformed expectations of a year ago. Not bad because sharply rising interest rates did not plunge the US, the eurozone and the UK into recession. Not bad because the war between Israel and Hamas has failed to send oil prices shooting above $100 a barrel.

- Larry Elliott

Not great because central banks face a balancing act between cutting interest rates too quickly and reigniting inflation, and keeping them too high and plunging their economies into recession. Not great because the early weeks of 2024 have led to a wider Middle East conflict, with implications for one of the world's main trade routes. And not great because - as Davos showed - the global economy is deeply fractured.

Inevitably, there is a risk that things will turn out badly in 2024. One leading global policymaker, speaking privately, said that repeated blows since 2020 meant it would be wise to be braced for the next surprise shock. Only the most incurable Davos optimist would quibble with that.

Washington and Beijing are in a grim struggle for economic supremacy. The gap between north and south is widening, and liberal democracy is being challenged by a new breed of autocrats. The planet continues to heat up. In a week that marks the 100th anniversary of Lenin's death, there are once again competing visions of what constitutes progress and success.

Even so, the death of globalisation has been much exaggerated. The reach of the multinational companies and the banks that continue to flock to the WEF were evidence of that.

As is the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI), part of a tech revolution that cuts across borders and which is leaving national regulators floundering in its wake.