Migration fall slows population growth

The UK population is projected to grow at a slower rate than previously stated, because of a sharp drop in the estimated level of migration.

- Ian Jones

Initial figures published in January by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested the population was projected to increase by 7.3% between mid-2022 and mid-2032.

This has been revised to the new figure of 5.9%, after the ONS said its short-term projections were "running too high".

Net migration to the UK - the difference between the number of people moving long term to the country and the number leaving - is estimated to have halved from 860,000 in 2023 to 431,000 in 2024, the ONS said in May.

But this data was not available when the ONS made its first population projections at the start of this year.

As migration is the main driver of population growth, the ONS has now adjusted its principal projection.

The population of England is also projected to grow at a slower rate than previously stated, rising by 6.4% between mid-2022 and mid-2032, compared with the previous projection of 7.8%.

The ONS said the new figures are "a better reflection of short-term population change". Projections are not forecasts or predictions and do not take into account what may or may not happen in the future. They are instead based on current and past trends, and as those trends change, the projections are adjusted accordingly.