Thailand needs a geostrategic rebalance

With two military coups and multiple judicial interventions that combined to subvert election results and weaken democratic institutions over the past two decades, it is unsurprising that Thailand’s geostrategic position has leaned increasingly towards China.

- Thitinan Pongsudhirak

Naturally, the more Thailand becomes autocratic, the more it will be estranged from established democracies in Europe and North America, as well as Japan and South Korea, with nowhere to turn but to Beijing. But this China orientation is a geostrategic mistake at this time. Thailand should correct its course until clearer signs emerge as to which side of the superpower struggle will come out on top.

To be sure, it would not be unwise to gravitate further towards China if the Asian giant is on course to reign supreme in the international system. But this is not the case, at least not yet. The ongoing confrontation and conflict between China and the United States, which will determine how the international order will be reshaped and reset, still has a long way to go. Thailand needs to pursue both sides in a moving geostrategic balance in the meantime. But this is not happening.

Picking up from my last article a week ago, Thailand has currently lost balance with the US over two major instances of shooting itself in the foot and scoring own goals for no good reason. The two cases are the deportation of 40 Uyghurs earlier this year on Feb 27 and the arrest on April 4 of a mild-mannered American academic, Dr Paul Chambers, over a publicity flyer about a talk he gave in Singapore last October. Meanwhile, those who think Thailand can simply turn to China in place of the US are ignorant of the fact that the latter remains the top destination for Thai exports.