Online eTailing Festive Month Sales to be Around F90,000 Crores: Redseer

The strategy consulting firm, projects eTailing festive month sales to be around 90,000 crores, which is 18-20 percent higher than last year

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Since the first online festive season in 2014, India's e-commerce market has grown ~20x in annual GMV and ~15X in annual active user terms. Over these 10 years, Indian eTailing has transformed almost entirely as the annual GMV for overall e-tailing industry has grown almost 20 times in the period. That is, while in 2014, the industry clocked a GMV of 27,000 crores in the whole year, this year (2023) the same is expected to be approx. 5,25,000 crores. In the process, the number of annual transacting users has jumped 15X.

The Indian eTailing has increasingly become the litmus test for consumer demand in India. The 10th festive season sale period is even more significant this year considering the recent slowdown in consumption and the almost 3 years of external shocks on the economy.

Wider Macro Context

Pre-COVID, the YOY growth rates of nominal Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) used to be around 8-9 percent. However, due to continuous external shocks like COVID- 19 and Russia-Ukraine conflict, there was significant flux in the market. And in the last couple of quarters of FY23, there was material consumption slowdown due to tightening liquidity conditions.

However, the YOY growth for PFCE has bounced back to 9 percent and several stabilising factors are kicking in. For instance, interest rates are maxing out, countries aiming to resolve the Russia Ukraine conflict, and the Indian economic growth numbers are coming in strong. So, there are meaningful tailwinds to support a relatively strong festive period this year.

eTailing Performance in India