Why onion and potato prices spiked and then normalised

Absa AgriBusiness highlights some of the factors impacting onion and potato market dynamics over the past five years.

- 

The main factors affecting onion and potato market dynamics were related to shocks around input costs and adverse weather events.

In this analysis we will focus on how historical events shaped the position of the markets, and how the markets progressed until the middle of 2025.

WAR CAUSING FERTILISER PRICES TO SURGE

For onions, the trend can be noted from 2022, when the start of the Russia-Ukraine war had a negative impact on macroeconomic factors. This resulted in fertiliser prices surging in 2022, and a sharp downward supply response in key global onion producing areas.

The effects of this also filtered through to South Africa, which resulted in exports from South Africa to regions as far afield as the EU.

Following that, in June 2023, inflation rates peaked due to a global onion shortage that resulted from a spike in input costs.

In 2024, market prices adjusted and normalised as global supplies recovered. Similar to potatoes, onions have also recorded disinflationary trends over the past months (see Graph 1).

INFLUENCE OF THE WEATHER