The Business NG - The BusinessNG

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Editorial Focus
As the Monetary Policy Committee meets on November 24–25, expectations are tilting toward another policy rate cut—an outcome that would signal growing confidence in Nigeria’s disinflation trajectory. The Central Bank’s recent 50-basis-point reduction, the first after nearly ten consecutive hikes, underscores a shift toward supporting growth without losing sight of price stability.
With inflation easing to 16.05% in October from 18.02% in September, the CBN faces a critical test: determining whether this decline reflects genuine economic improvement or a temporary statistical adjustment following the CPI rebasing. While improved food supply, better FX liquidity, and rising macroeconomic stability suggest a real downward trend, concerns persist about the lived realities of households still grappling with high costs.
Analysts like Dr. Tilewa Adebajo warn that rebased inflation data does not equate to instant relief for Nigerians. The MPC must therefore balance optimism with caution. A further rate cut could stimulate lending and investment, but only if grounded in confidence that inflation is on a durable downward path. The committee’s decision this week will reveal how firmly the CBN believes in the sustainability of the current macroeconomic gains.