Prison population to hit 100k later than expected

THE prison population in Wales and England is now projected to reach 100,000 a year later than previously thought, new Ministry of Justice figures (MoJ) show.

- ANAHITA HOSSEIN-POUR AND IAN JONES

The estimates published yesterday project the rise in the number of prisoners in jails will reach between 98,000 and 103,6000 by March 2030, with a central estimate of 100,600.

The MoJ said the suggested increase was driven by several factors including a continued rise in police charges and prosecutions, more cases coming to court and increases in the numbers of offenders recalled to custody.

But the department also found the prison population was projected to be around 2,400 lower than previously thought by September 2028 following the central estimate, compared to last year's publication.

Last year, the MoJ published estimates of an increase of between 95,700 and 105,200 by March 2029, with a central estimate of 100,800.

The MoJ said the difference was mainly driven by recent sentencing policy measures, including the emergency measure to free some criminals at an earlier point in their sentence.