TURKEY-ISRAEL RIVALRY IS RESHAPING WEST ASIA

The risk of escalation in Turkey-Israel relations is likely to grow as areas of friction increasingly overlap across multiple theatres. That said, important constraints remain.

- MAJ GEN JAGATBIR SINGH (RETD)

Amid the Middle East’s deepening turmoil, the growing rivalry between Israel and Tiirkiye is fueling tension in an already fragmented region.

Despite a past legacy of cooperation, relations are now at an all-time low and have entered one of their most tense periods in years, triggered by a series of regional developments that are transforming the relationship into a full-blown geopolitical confrontation.

The present flashpoint is Somaliland, which sits at a critical geostrategic crossroads opposite Yemen, overlooking the junction of the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991, but functioned as a self-governing republic until December 2025 when Israel became the first state to extend formal recognition. The decision has generated controversy not least because of the legal precedent it sets under international law and its potential to exacerbate geopolitical competition in an already fragile space. More specifically, it risks accelerating competition between Israel and Turkey as their interests continue to diverge across the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and in West Asia. What began as a diplomatic rupture has hardened into a regional power contest with direct consequences for US strategy from Gaza to the Eastern Mediterranean and tothe Horn of Africa.

SYRIA