The debate in Trump world over Ukraine isn't what India thinks it is

There is reason to doubt Trump’s second non-consecutive term will be the same as his first.

- CLIFF SMITH

Days before the election that completed his shocking comeback, President-elect Donald Trump’s post on X, condemned the persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh, praised Narendra Modi, and condemned Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Ukraine. From Trump’s point of view this was a play for the Indian diaspora in key swing states around America. But it was also music to Indian diplomats’ ears.

Policy wise, there have been ups and downs during Biden’s tenure, but the trajectory has been positive. But politically, the U.S./ India relationship reached its zenith when Trump appeared with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at 2019’s “Howdy Modi,” event in Houston. Trump’s X post seemed to suggest that Trump 2.0 could lead the India/US relationship to new heights.

But there is reason to doubt Trump’s second non-consecutive term will be the same as his first.

While appearing on a panel, consisting of several American Trump loyalists, and Indian experts, I made a simple point that experts have made repeatedly: during Trump’s first term, his Vice President was Mike Pence, while this time, his Vice President would be J.D. Vance.

This difference has potentially profound implications. Pence, I pointed out, is one of the most strident supporters of Ukraine and critics of the rise of isolationism in the Republican party. Vance, on the other hand, is perhaps the most vocal critic of Ukraine on the right, backer of restraint, which its critics call isolationism.

The Indians on the panel, as well as Trump’s backers, disagreed, seeing this solely about what many Indians view as a mistaken U.S. policy toward the war between Russia and Ukraine. Due mostly to differing histories, the U.S. and India see the Ukraine war differently.