Marshal Winter is coming

While on the back foot, the Russian war machine is still strong. If they can consolidate in winter, the war could continue into the next year and perhaps even beyond in an endless frozen conflict’.

- AJAY SINGH

With the success of the Ukrainian offensive, both in the east and in the south, the complexion of the war has changed. It has enabled Ukraine to regain vital territory, which the Russians had taken months to recapture, and pushed it on to the back foot. The Ukrainian offensive was brilliantly executed, with a feint in the south in September, that drew out Russian troops from the east and depleted their positions there. When the Ukrainians launched their own offensive in the northeast, it raced through the "stretched and ragged Russian lines", recaptured the vital communication centres of Lyman, Izium and Kupyansk, and established bridgeheads on the Oskil River that threaten Russian positions in Luhansk and Donetsk. That spectacular offensive was followed up with a renewed thrust in the south, which cut off over 2030,000 Russian troops on the west of the Dnieper River, forcing them to withdraw.

They recaptured Kherson on 12 November, providing Ukraine with its greatest victory of the war. With the fall of Kherson, Russia lost the only provincial capital that it had occupied and completely unhinged their positions in the south.

Where can the war go from here? The Russians have now consolidated along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River and prepared strong defences there. The Ukrainians will find it difficult to cross the two-kilometer-wide river, more so since the retreating Russians have blown up all the bridges. But with Kherson under their belt, perhaps the Ukrainians can launch an even more ambitious offensive from the north of Kherson in the area of Zaporizhzhia (which has seen some heavy fighting around the critical nuclear plant).