Would Europe Pivot to China in Trump's Tariff War?

Beijing has been quick to fill the void left by the Americans, but there are still concerns

- Jonathan Eyal

BRUSSELS/CHONGQING - The temptation is obvious: As their security and trade relations with the US are torn to shreds by President Donald Trump, some European leaders are calling on their continent to pivot towards China, partly as a hedge against an old ally that can no longer be trusted, and partly because both China and Europe continue to voice their support for global, open trade.

That's the logic behind Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's visit to Beijing on April 11, his third such trip in less than two years and the first by any European leader since Mr. Trump slapped his trade tariffs.

That may also be why Dr. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission and the European Union's executive, recently softened her language on China and now prefers to speak about "engaging constructively" with Beijing.

However, the obstacles to a closer partnership between the EU and China remain formidable. Nor is it evident that either side is prepared to pay the political and economic price required for such a pivot.

The shock and resentment in Europe towards Mr. Trump's current policies are palpable. On April 2, he introduced - and then paused - a 20 per cent "reciprocal tariff" on EU exports to the US. The pause will expire by late June, unless an agreement is reached.

The Europeans are also facing a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine on their continent, yet Washington is increasingly siding with Moscow against Europe's strategic interests.

The EU-US link still accounts for the biggest trade relationship in the world, but Mr. Trump not only dismisses this as irrelevant, but also recently claimed — falsely — that the EU's entire purpose is "to screw over the US".

The stable and prosperous world underpinned by the US security guarantee to Europe is fading away.

CHINA FILLING THE VOID?

Beijing was quick to seize on the opportunity to fill the void left by the Americans.