Will Trump's Tariffs Change the Way Australians Vote?

As tariffs shake up the global trading system, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may benefit from a swing in favour of incumbents.

- Jonathan Pearlman

SYDNEY - Ahead of a looming election on May 3, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had been strategising how to defy a recent trend that has been wiping out leaders across the democratic world: the anti-incumbency sentiment.

From the United States to India, Japan and France, voter backlash arising from the cost of living and inflation in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine had led to ruling governments suffering at the ballot box.

Then a tariff bombshell from US President Donald Trump dropped. Australia was not spared. As it shakes up the global trading system, Mr Albanese may now benefit from a swing back in favour of incumbents.

Mr Trump's announcement, which included 10 per cent tariffs on Australia, has given the opportunity to Mr Albanese to assert leadership and address longstanding criticisms that he is weak.

The decision to apply the tariffs to Australia — a staunch ally of the US — was viewed as a betrayal and has prompted questions about the future of the relationship. The crisis is not of Mr Albanese's making, but his political future depends on how he handles it.

Mr Albanese said he planned to support affected sectors such as beef producers to sell to new markets, encourage consumers to buy Australian goods and strengthen measures to prevent countries dumping the Australian market with cheap goods. He has also signalled that he may use Australia's vast reserves of critical minerals to try to negotiate a deal with the White House, though details are pending.

"We will continue to negotiate," the Prime Minister told reporters on April 4. "Serious governments engage government to government. That is what we have been doing."

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