Why 2025 could be a make-or-break year for the US in Asia

The superpower has been ceding ground to China in Asia and Trump's hard-nosed agenda may make matters worse.

- Ravi Velloor

Donald Trump has promised a "golden age" for America, but in Asia things could not look more dismal for the world's still-most powerful nation. As President Joe Biden leaves the scene, American power, particularly soft power, has never looked so nebulous.

At the very least, a picture of confusion is evident. At one extreme is the fear of American retrenchment, born partly out of the isolationism and inward-looking nativism inherent in the forces that propelled Trump to power.

At the other end are apprehensions that Trump's America First surge for dominance - or "greatness" - will turn out to be a zero-sum game aimed squarely at prevailing over China and, in the bargain, hurt countries that see no issues with maintaining a healthy relationship with the mainland.

Around the region, nations that took American dominance and strategic involvement for granted are starting to hedge their bets. Many are making overtures to Asia's dominant military and economic power, China, and Beijing is reciprocating - sensing both the perils it could come under during the Trump years, as well as an opportunity to improve its standing with a series of key regional powers with which ties had turned testy over the past decade.

Japan has sent high-level representatives to China and expects a return visit; Indonesia's new president made Beijing his first port of call even before he was sworn into office, and afterwards. Indians and Chinese held their first real summit-level meeting in five years in October.

China is fearful that Japan's Mr Shigeru Ishiba, although running a minority government, may be an enthusiastic participant in a stepped-up Trumpian initiative to corral China; Japan for its part is scared that Trump might do a deal with President Xi Jinping, to its disadvantage.