Ukraine ceasefire could leave Russia's alliance with N. Korea in the backseat

Experts believe that explains why an uneasy Pyongyang is rebuilding ties with Beijing

- Wendy Teo

SEOUL - As the Ukraine war ceasefire negotiations gain momentum under the mediation of the U.S., unease has set in over Pyongyang.

Pyongyang has been a crucial military partner to Moscow in the war, supplying much-needed artillery shells, missiles and troops in exchange for monetary compensation, food, fuel and advanced rocket technology.

But when the time comes for a truce, North Korea's relationship with Russia will inevitably take a backseat, say analysts.

A March 28 intelligence update from the British Ministry of Defence estimated that North Korea has suffered more than 5,000 casualties in the war as at March. This would account for nearly half of the reported 11,000 troops it deployed to aid Russia in the battle against Ukraine since October 2024.

While North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was said to have dispatched an additional 3,000 soldiers in February to make up for the loss in numbers, analysts say that his anxiety is likely growing, as he watches from the sidelines the attempts by U.S. President Donald Trump to broker an armistice with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ceasefire talks are still ongoing, but an agreement was reached on March 18 for both Ukraine and Russia to temporarily halt attacks on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days.

Dr Cho Han-bum, senior research fellow at the think-tank Korea Institute for National Unification, told The Straits Times that it is natural for North Korea to feel uneasy about a ceasefire or possible ending of the war.