Trump's Tariff Threat Injects Uncertainty Into Canadian Election Race

US President Donald Trump has helped upend the 2025 Canadian election, transforming what looked like an easy win for the official opposition Conservatives into a tighter race that could even end in deadlock.

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OTTAWA -

The right-leaning Conservatives, led by Mr. Pierre Poilievre, enjoyed a double-digit lead for 18 months over the Liberals of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom they accused of breaking Canada after almost a decade in power.

Now that supposed victory looks much less sure.

The reasons? Mr. Trudeau's resignation announcement in January, followed by Mr. Trump's vow to impose potentially crippling tariffs on all imports from Canada.

"When you look at the changes over the past four weeks, it's basically a whole new world... The big change is Trump," said Mr. Nik Nanos, founder of the Nanos Research polling firm.

A Nanos poll released on Feb 18 showed the Conservatives with 39 per cent of public support, and the Liberals with 32 per cent.

Such a result on election day could see the Conservatives fail to win a majority of the 343 seats in the House of Commons.

This would mean a fragile minority government, where the party in power tends to be more focused on its survival than dealing with Canada's major issues such as energy and mineral policy and challenges from its largest trading partner.

The Liberals want to highlight what they see as similarities between Mr. Trump and Mr. Poilievre and on Feb 16 released an advertisement drawing direct parallels between the two men, who both promote the national flag, insult opponents and attack the media.